A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
